![]() How Not to Be Fooled by Odds By DAVID LEONHARDT When Uber and Airbnb Meet the Real World By CLAIRE CAIN MILLERįor a new wave of tech start-ups, the belief that problems could be solved by software, not people, was the first wrong assumption. The state of the economy is likely to be at the center of the national conversation for years to come. The stock market, meanwhile, isn’t far off its recent highs, despite We’re still a long way from having an economy that is fundamentally healthy, and it’s not clear what it will take to get us there. Recent years and increased income inequality. Yellen leads - has taken steps that have both lifted economic growth in As he notes, the Federal Reserve - which Ms. We posted this morning, analyzes Janet Yellen’s big speech on inequality. You’ll be able to make a lot more sense of the economy’s twists Neil Irwin has helped explain those declines in a series of pieces over that time, culminating in an article that looked at the flip side of what I describe above: As the economy has seemed to improve a bit in recent months, stocks have struggled. Over the last several weeks, the two began coming more into line, because of a few noticeable declines in the stock market. The rest of the economy has been in a slog. The stock market has been booming as if it were the 1990s again. Stocks began rising just after the darkest days of the crisis, in March 2009, and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index For the last four years, we’ve had a recovery without prosperity.Īnd yet you wouldn’t know it from looking at stock prices over most of that time. Sluggishly and still haven’t returned to their pre-crisis highs. Although the official unemployment rate has fallen, many people have dropped out of the labor force. ![]() Clary/Agence France-Presse - Getty ImagesĪ Letter From the Editor: Making Sense of Stocks By DAVID LEONHARDTĪmericans have been grumpy about this economic recovery since it began, and with good reason. Lost their advantage in presidential elections?Īnd what about these ridiculous races in South Dakota and Kansas?Ī trader at work on the New York Stock Exchange late Thursday. How close is Georgia to turning blue? To what extent can Democrats mobilize their so-called new coalition in an off-year election in Florida and North Carolina, where Republicans have already This year’s contests might also be remembered as a milestone in the longer-term trend of growing Democratic strength in the Southeast, where in-migration and rapid demographic change is eroding the G.O.P.'s Is this still possible in today’s polarized era? Can Democratic incumbents still outperform the national party among white Southerners by a large enough margin to win in red states? To have any chance of one day building a governing majority in the House or Senate, Democrats need to win and hold areas that the party has lost in presidentialĮlections. The election poses a different set of questions in red states. doesn’t win the presidential battlegrounds now, what would it say about its chances in 2016, when Republicans won’t benefit from low turnout among young and nonwhite voters? It also hinges on whether Republican governors can win competitive contests in states like Florida and Michigan, where Republican incumbents have no business losing in a wave election. Republicans ought to fare well there if this is indeed a wave election The answer hinges in part on whether Republicans can win in blue states or presidential battleground states, like Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina. The core question of this election remains unanswered: Is it a wave? Is the national environment extremely good for Republicans, or are they mainly poised to gain because the set of battleground states just happens These contests might lack the drama of a presidential election - and there are plenty of signs of voter apathy in this cycle - but they make up for it with their diversity, collectively addressing some of the most important and analytically compelling questions in electoral politics. Better still, these close Senate races add up to something meaningful and There are a dozen competitive and close Senate contests and, for good measure, there are another dozen competitive governors’ contests. All around, it might be the best general election in a decade. I have a confession: I think this is a great election. Not Following the Midterms? You're Missing All the Fun By NATE COHN ![]() Who will win the Senate? We give the Republicans a 71% chance of gaining a majority. View in Browser | Add to your address book.
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